Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorSalvadori G
dc.contributor.authorDurante F
dc.contributor.authorDe Michele C
dc.contributor.authorBernardi M
dc.contributor.authorPetrella L
dc.date.accessioned2017-09-19T09:10:22Z
dc.date.available2017-09-19T09:10:22Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn0043-1397
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017225
dc.identifier.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017225/full
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10863/2986
dc.description.abstractThis paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case ( d2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectSECS-S/01en_US
dc.titleA multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilitiesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.date.updated2016-12-16T07:47:25Z
dc.journal.titleWater Resources Research
dc.description.fulltextnoneen_US


Files in this item

FilesSizeFormatView

There are no files associated with this item.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record