Impact Chains and System Dynamics Modelling for multi-risk assessments and climate change adaptation
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At: International workshop on modelling risk and resilience in human and natural systems ; Bern ; 05/05/2019 - 09/05/2019 ; Whilst most natural hazards have been critically scrutinized for many years, research unravelling the interplays of multiple hazards, vulnerable societies and the assessment of related risks is still in its infancy. This limitation may have substantial influence on future potential impacts in particular within the context of climate change. Here we present our research on the representation of interactions and dependencies related to a multitude of possible hazards and risks in mountain regions. Impact Chains (IC) are a conceptual method aiming at the identification of relevant interplays and key factors of climate risk assessments. Building an IC is an iterative process improving the risk understanding, accounting for both climate and bio-physical components coming from physically-based models, and socio-economic aspects from participatory processes with local stakeholder. Starting from such a conceptual perspective, IC have been integrated with quantitative assessments of variables levels, their rate of change and feedback loops. This quantitative method known as System Dynamics Modelling (SDM), implement statistical analysis to determine the most influential variables and their causality relationships. By doing so, environmental and socio-economic variables can be connected for a systemic representation of interactions looking at the leverage points: parts of the system to act upon in order to trigger influence on the system as a whole. SDM is currently applied to an Alpine catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy) looking at declining water resource and potential impacts on the main dam reservoir of the Province for different climate change scenarios. Finally, IC and SDM represent innovative methodologies able to integrate variables of different metrics improving the comprehension of systemic risk processes and supporting the identification of climate adaptation strategies at community level.