Integrating qualitative and quantitative data from stakeholders and modelling: the integrated risk assessment methodology used for the project “GreenRisk4Alps”
At: Inquimus 2019 ; Bonn ; 26/11/2018 - 28/11/2019 ; “GreenRisk4ALPs” is an Interreg Alpine Space project which aims at implementing an ecosystem-based risk management strategy for gravitational natural hazards in the Alpine region. A risk assessment process is therefore necessary to understand where and to what extent ecosystem-based solutions such as protection forests may bring benefits in terms of natural hazard mitigation. The methodological framework follows a stepwise approach that allows for different depths of analysis: - Firstly, a multi-layer exposure assessment evaluates the exposure of assets to different gravitational natural hazards under different forest scenarios. - The spatially explicit analysis is complemented by a stakeholder workshop, that we call “Rapid Risk Appraisal”, through which local knowledge on risks and on their management is acquired. This participatory process allows to gain information on both the natural and the social aspects which generate the risk. - The combination of the first two steps serves to locate risk hotspots, an important step since the analysis must be carried out for six study areas, located in five different countries of the Alpine region. In these areas, a more detailed spatially explicit analysis can be performed. - Finally, climate scenarios are calculated and used to evaluate how the forest and its protection function will be modified in the future due to climate change. All this aims at providing recommendations for a forestry-based risk management strategy which considers current and future, social and environmental conditions. In the GreenRisk4Alps project, different space-time dynamics are therefore considered: not only the differences in exposure caused by the presence/absence of forests, but also the effects of climate change on the forest structure. Moreover, being the Alps a highly touristic area both in summer and in winter, analysing the spatio-temporal changes in exposure can be integrated into the more detailed spatially explicit analysis to achieve a more comprehensive risk assessment. By participating to the Inquimus workshop, I aim at sharing my experience gained within this project and at exchanging advice with practitioners who are active in this field. Dynamic risk assessment methods and tools addressed during the workshops could be applied to the more detailed spatially explicit analysis. This way the methodology we developed can be improved and enriched with new insights.
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