The Bass diffusion model on networks with correlations and inhomogeneous advertising
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The Bass model, which is an effective forecasting tool for innovation diffusion based on large collections of empirical data, assumes an homogeneous diffusion process. We introduce a network structure into this model and we investigate numerically the dynamics in the case of networks with link density P(k) = c/k(gamma), where k=1, ... ,N. The resulting curve of the total adoptions in time is qualitatively similar to the homogeneous Bass curve corresponding to a case with the same average number of connections. The peak of the adoptions, however, tends to occur earlier, particularly when gamma and N are large (i.e., when there are few hubs with a large maximum number of connections). Most interestingly, the adoption curve of the hubs anticipates the total adoption curve in a predictable way, with peak times which can be, for instance when N = 100, between 10% and 60% of the total adoptions peak. This may allow to monitor the hubs for forecasting purposes. We also consider the case of networks with assortative and disassortative correlations and a case of inhomogeneous advertising where the publicity terms are "targeted" on the hubs while maintaining their total cost constant.