Abstract
This deliverable presents the method and results of assessing the potential impacts of a selection of sufficiency scenario measures on greenhouse gas emissions, Gross domestic product (GDP), and em-ployment in the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world (RoW). An input-output model based on the Exiobase v3.3.18 database was employed, with adjustments made to represent the sufficiency scenario assumptions and background changes up to 2050. The input data from five FULFILL coun-tries (Italy, France, Germany, Latvia, and Denmark) was extended to all EU countries using a clustering approach.
Six sufficiency scenario assumptions were modelled: diets, moderate car sizing, cycling more, flying less, sharing spaces in housing, and sharing products. The results show that dietary changes and re-duced air travel have a large potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, the sufficiency scenario assumptions could lead to a 13% reduction in emissions within the EU compared to a sce-nario without these measures. However, the measures also result in a ~4% reduction in GDP and a decrease of ~20 million jobs within the EU by 2050, with even more significant job losses in the RoW.
The deliverable discusses the limitations of the study, such as the exclusion of rebound effects and the assumptions made in extending the input data to all EU countries. Despite these limitations, the find-ings highlight the potential of sufficiency scenario assumptions to complement technological solutions in achieving decarbonization targets, while also emphasizing the need to manage the economic and social implications of these measures carefully.