Abstract
Travel restrictions and social distancing imposed to curb the spread of the new coronavirus have been strongly hitting tourism since March 2020. Tourism forecasting literature addressed the effects of shocks in contexts characterized by a predictable route to recovery. COVID-19 is without precedents. In this article, monthly overnight stays for the period January 2010 to December 2020 are used to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Lombardy, Italy’s most affected region. A model-based approach is implemented, and the number of overnight stays up to December 2023 is forecasted. Four models are compared. Estimation results from an augmented SARIMA model suggest that, provided a new lockdown is averted, the domestic segment will recover in a relatively short period of time, whereas international tourism might need an external intervention to speed up its recovery process.