Abstract
Monitoring the expansion of invasive non-native plants under current and future climatic conditions is crucial for understanding biodiversity threats, addressing the ecological impact, and developing effective management strategies. This study focuses on modelling the expansion and distribution of Senecio inaequidens DC. on the island of Sardinia (Italy) to address these environmental challenges. The objectives were to identify bio-climatically suitable areas under current conditions, project potential future distribution, and evaluate invasion dynamics on the island to localize suitable areas for effective management strategies. Species data were collected from 1991 to the present, supplemented by global databases and analyzed using an ensemble species distribution model approach. This approach utilized presence data, high-resolution current bioclimatic variables (40 m2), developed explicitly for our study area, and two future scenarios derived from the newly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for 2040 and 2060). The ensemble model's findings suggest a close alignment between the currently documented occurrences of S. inaequidens and its bio-climatically suitable habitats in Sardinia. Moreover, predictions indicate high bioclimatic suitability for S. inaequidens in the western and southwestern coastal regions, contrasting with its known occurrences at higher altitudes. Notably, the model also forecasts high bio-climatic suitability across most small islands surrounding the region and in central-east Sardinia, potentially indicating habitats at lower altitudes compared to current records. Under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, suitable areas are expected to nearly double by 2040 and more than double by 2060, compared to current conditions. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, the increase in suitable habitats is projected to be about 83.31% by 2040 and more than double by 2060. These results highlight the species' ability to thrive under climate change, with a more pronounced range expansion under the pessimistic management regime (SSP5–8.5) than under the intermediate one (SSP2–4.5), particularly in the central region of the island. This expansion under the more severe management scenario is particularly alarming as it reflects limited implementation of environmental management policies. The study underscores the potential ecological risk posed by S. inaequidens due to its potential range expansion and ability to invade different habitat types, from coastal regions to mountainous areas, under current and future scenarios. Based on these findings, we propose targeted management actions for monitoring and eradicating the species, leveraging prior information and local experiences to mitigate its impact.