Abstract
European inner-alpine dry grasslands face substantial threats within the increasingly human-altered landscape, endangering their persistence. To understand changes in dry grassland communities, we revisited historical vegetation plots of Josias Braun-Blanquet after 70 years in Val Venosta, Italy, hosting rare steppe-like grassland vegetation. By disentangling the key environmental factors encompassing climate, land use and human management, and ecological site preferences, we aimed at explaining changes in dry grassland communities with implications for future conservation. By extending our analysis beyond conventional dissimilarity metrics and adopting a landscape-ecological perspective accounting for species-environment interactions, we assessed how environmental changes affect dissimilarity patterns among historical sites, recent non-protected sites, and recent protected sites with generalized additive modelling. Moreover, we examined ecologically significant species changes to evaluate their contribution to community variation within and between sites, discerning their consequences at the landscape scale. Our results revealed significant changes in dry grassland sites, both on non-protected and protected sites. The encroachment of shrubs was associated with a significant increase in generalist species, including various woody species on sites where grazing had ceased. Furthermore, we observed a higher abundance of nutrient-demanding species on sites next to intensive agriculture. These trends were consistent regardless of the protection status, implying that current conservation measures may be insufficient to guarantee their future persistence. To ensure the long-term conservation of typical inner-alpine dry grasslands, interdisciplinary conservation efforts are essential to address adverse environmental impacts across the entire landscape.