Abstract
Mountain plant species are changing their ranges in response to global warming. However, these shifts vary tremendously in rate, extent and direction. The reasons for this variation are yet poorly understood. A process potentially important for mountain plant re-distribution is a competition between colonizing species and the resident vegetation. Here, we focus on the impact of this process using the recent elevational shift of the sedge Carex humilis in the northern Italian Alps as a model system. We repeated and extended historical sampling (conducted in 1976) of the species in the study region. We used the historical distribution data and historical climatic maps to parameterize a species distribution model (SDM) and projected the potential distribution of the species under current conditions. We compared the historical and the current re-survey for the species in terms of the cover of important potential competitor species as well as in terms of the productivity of the resident vegetation indicated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We found that Carex humilis has shifted its leading range margin upward rapidly (51.2 m per decade) but left many sites that have become climatically suitable since 1976 according to the SDM uncolonized. These suitable but uncolonized sites show significantly higher coverage of all dwarf shrub species and higher NDVI than the sites occupied by the sedge. These results suggest that resistance of the resident vegetation against colonization of migrating species can indeed play an important role in controlling the re-distribution of mountain plants under climate change.