Abstract
Extreme droughts are affecting millions of livestock farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, causing water shortages, famines, migration and fatalities. The construction of new small water infrastructures (SWIs), such as deep wells and boreholes, is increasingly supported by climate resilience programmes of non-governmental organizations and national governments to improve water availability for agro-pastoralists, especially as an emergency response to extreme droughts. Although the short-term benefits of SWI are clear, their potential cumulative impact and their long-term effects on the resilience of dryland communities remain unclear. Here, building on in-depth anthropological literature from five key African drylands, we model post-drought pastoralists’ dynamics related to SWI. We show that while developing new SWI releases water shortages in the short term, it can erode traditional adaptation practices without adequate governance. We further illustrate how our model captures early quantitative signals of resilience loss in dryland Angola. This indicates that poorly governed water development in African drylands can be a limiting factor for the long-term resilience of pastoral communities facing a range of social, demographic, economic and climate challenges.