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Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis

Andreas Dibiasi and Samad Sarferaz
European Economic Review, Vol.153, pp.1-30
153
2023
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/10863/52036

Abstract

Employment protection legislation Rational forecast error Real-time data System of national accounts Uncertainty shocks
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under varying degrees of employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.
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