Abstract
The bush cricket Saga pedo, listed as Vulnerable globally by the IUCN and included in Annex IV of the EU Habitats Directive, is a parthenogenetic species highly sensitive to environmental changes, facing threats from forest expansion and agricultural intensification. S. pedo prefers dry, open habitats with sparse vegetation, and its pronounced thermo-heliophily makes it an indicator of xerothermic habitats. In many areas of Italy, including the Northern Apennines (Piedmont), semi-natural grasslands are fragmented. Open habitats have been reduced to small, isolated patches surrounded by forests due to the abandonment of agropastoral activities. Consequently, the occurrence of open habitat species is related to the quality and availability of suitable areas and ecological connectivity. We developed a spatial Bayesian framework to identify areas of occurrence for S. pedo. Using the inverse probability of occurrence, we derived ecological corridors among suitable patches. Our findings indicate that the occurrence and connectivity of S. pedo are reduced by intensive cultivation but favored by open habitats with 10–50% woody tree cover, suggesting sustainable land management is crucial for supporting the species. Given the extinction risk S. pedo faces, we urge local administrations to maintain and improve suitable areas and guarantee the network of ecological corridors identified.