Abstract
This study presents a BIM-integrated life cycle analysis framework (screening-level) for climate-responsive urban energy performance assessment at district scale. The methodology addresses the need for consistent evaluation of operational energy demand under both design interventions and future climate conditions. A mixed-use district in Milan is used as a case study, where parametric BIM massing models (LOD 200–300) are coupled with building energy simulation to analyze three scenarios: a baseline configuration (S0), an envelope optimization scenario (S1), and a future climate scenario based on CMIP6 morphed weather data (S2). The framework enables comparative assessment of energy performance across consistent geometric, operational, and climatic assumptions. Results indicate that envelope optimization reduces energy use intensity by approximately 15–22% across building typologies. Under future climate conditions, cooling demand increases significantly, while reduced heating requirements result in a total district energy use intensity of 33.6 kWh/m2·year (1.60 GWh/year). An indicative carbon assessment based on simulated energy use highlights cooling-driven electricity as the dominant contributor to operational emissions under future conditions. The findings demonstrate that climate change primarily redistributes energy demand between heating and cooling rather than uniformly increasing total consumption, and confirm the value of BIM-integrated, scenario-based workflows for supporting climate-responsive urban design decisions.