Abstract
We study the impact of dust-driven pollution on social conflict in West Africa, exploiting exogenous variation in PM2.5 concentrations caused by Saharan dust transported by Harmattan winds. Using a monthly panel covering 16 West African countries from 2003 to 2017, we combine satellite-derived PM2.5 data with geo-referenced conflict events. We instrument PM2.5 using dust emissions from the Bodélé Depression interacted with northeasterly Harmattan winds. We find that a one standard deviation increase in PM2.5 reduces the likelihood of conflict by 0.13 percentage points. The effects are concentrated in riots, one-sided violence, ethnic and religious conflict, and conflicts involving non-local actors. Similarly, we find that resource-related conflicts increase. The findings suggest that severe dust episodes constrain mobility, visibility, and social interaction, thereby reducing opportunities for violent confrontation, even as they intensify competition over scarce resources.