Abstract
Increasing anthropogenic pressures such as pollution, climate change or invasive species can have multiple impacts on ecosystems and the services (ES) they provide. To address the potential effects on ES provision, we propose a geospatial framework to identify and analyze the cumulative effects on terrestrial and freshwater ES. The framework includs an impact chain analysis based on ten pressures grouped into six categories (pollution, climate change, land-use change, overexploitation, land fragmentation, invasive species) and their single or multiple effects on five key ES of the Alpine environment (recreation, forest protection, CO2 sequestration, habitat maintenance, grassland biomass). Results show that the areas most affected by cumulative effects were located in major urban centers, in the Po Valley, Germany, Slovenia, and in coastal areas of the Adriatic Sea. The spatial coincidence analysis of pressure P-ES on IUCN protected sites showed that protection categories IV and V mostly had high P/high ES scores. Our approach will help in management and planning for mountain conservation aimed at reducing multi-pressure occurrences in transboundary environments. The framework can be used to identify areas with the highest ES provision, characterize areas with high stress from anthropogenic pressures, and examine the effects of pressures on protected areas.