Abstract
This dissertation comprises three empirical papers that contribute to the field of migration and development economics, with a particular focus on the study of the South-South migration decision-making process and the impact of crime policies and drug trafficking on developing countries. The global migrant population has been steadily increasing, reaching 281 million in 2020, and among them, 89.3 million individuals have been forcibly displaced due to various challenges such as persecution, conflict, violence, or human rights violations. With three quarters of the global refugee population fleeing fragile contexts and finding refuge in similarly fragile countries, it becomes crucial to understand the determinants of decision-making for South-South migrants. To investigate these topics, this research focuses on South America, where high-quality data is available for countries experiencing various crises and sources of instability. The Venezuelan exodus, prompted by the country's political and economic crisis, provides a unique context for studying the economic and non-economic determinants of migration decisions. This migration episode, which occurred between 2015 and 2021, involved approximately one-fifth of the Venezuelan population, resulting in a diverse composition of the migrant flow in terms of skills, age, gender, and non-observable characteristics. Furthermore, Venezuelan migration has been directed toward countries with varying levels of economic development and different migration policy responses. Chapter 1 investigates how exposure to violence by police forces affects the decision to emigrate from Venezuela. The findings reveal a positive impact of violent deaths resulting from resistance to authorities on the likelihood of individuals moving out of Venezuela. The analysis employs instrumental variable estimation, controlling for various individual, household, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics. Additionally, the effect is significant among males and people with a lower level of education. These results contribute to shed light on the non-economic factors, such as authoritative violence, in shaping migration patterns and the skill composition of migrants. Chapter 2 examines whether potential migrants respond to economic incentives even in a situation where their own country is undergoing a severe crisis and most destination countries are similarly fragile. The analysis combines individual-level data representative of the Venezuelan population with similar data on Venezuelan migrants residing in Colombia, Peru, Chile, and the US. The findings show that income differentials and migration costs are robust determinants of Venezuelan migration choice. The study also highlights the role of individual and destination country-specific characteristics, such as gender, education, distance, and pre crisis networks, in migration decision-making. Additionally, the study evaluates the impact of a restrictive policy implemented by the Peruvian government on migration costs and the skill composition of the migration flow, revealing unintended consequences. Another significant aspect to study in the developing world is the violence associated with criminal organizations. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between illicit drug markets and violence in producing countries by focusing on the case of Colombia and the impact of coca production along trafficking routes. By using data on coca crops and crime incidents, and constructing a predicted network of coca-trafficking routes, we aim to identify the causal impact of local exposure to drug markets on homicide rates. Our identification strategy leverages the quasi-experimental setting provided by the unanticipated announcement by the Colombian government in 2014 of a crop-substitution program (PNIS) which led to a sizeable increase in coca production. The results highlight a significant and positive association between the amount of coca trafficked through a municipality and the homicide rate. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the spillover effects of drug production and criminal networks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive policy interventions.