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Beyond Risk Propagation: A Unified Approach Takeaways From the Cybersecurity Domain
 

Beyond Risk Propagation: A Unified Approach Takeaways From the Cybersecurity Domain

Alessandro Mosca, Mattia Fumagalli, G Engelberg, VD Corvalan, D Klein, P Soffer, Diego Calvanese G Guizzardi
Proceedings of the Joint Ontology Workshops (JOWO) - Episode XI: The Sicilian Summer under the Etna, co-located with the 15th International Conference on Formal Ontology in Information Systems (FOIS 2025) Catania, Italy, September 8-12, 2025, Vol.4176
CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 4176
CAOS 2025: 9h Workshop on Cognition And OntologieS, held at JOWO 2025: Episode XI The Sicilian Summer under the Etna, 08/09/2025 - 09/09/2025 Catania (Catania, 08/09/2025–09/09/2025)
2026
:
https://hdl.handle.net/10863/53532
Risk modeling Risk assessment Conceptual modeling Risk propagation
Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk spreads in a given system. Due to the complexity and variety of the domain of application, risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually complex notion. So far several design and implementation solutions in this area have focused on how risk can be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated in a network of correlated events. However, situations that are usually considered for the propagation of risk involve key concepts of different types, which are rarely limited to a chain of events and their probabilities. In this paper, we provide a novel account of risk propagation via an ontology-driven approach. The proposal stems from a well-founded ontological analysis and aims at modeling the phenomenon of risk propagation according to multiple epistemic dimensions, which involve objects, assets, the agents involved, and their objectives. We test our approach on an implementation and we show how the proposed solution can be used to aid in addressing multiple risk analysis tasks, including a demonstrative case from the cybersecurity domain.

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url
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-4176/
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