Abstract
Climate-related hazards and risks are systemic and multifaceted, becoming increasingly complex in multi-risk contexts. As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, multi-risks and multi-hazards are expected to become more frequent. Concurrently, social and human variables influence vulnerability and exposure, affecting the ability of socio-environmental systems to cope with future climate-related risks.
The risk science community recognizes the interconnected nature of risk, yet current methodologies for risk analysis and assessment fall short in addressing these complexities. To advance risk science, EURAC Research, in collaboration with other partners, has developed a conceptual framework called Impact Chains (IC). This framework systematically and comprehensively represents interactions among risk components, such as hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. It allows for the identification of specific risk pathways within given geographical and temporal contexts.
IC's versatility enables its use in analyzing both current and future risks through various methodologies, including participatory processes, scenario development simulations, and retrospective disaster analysis (e.g., forensic analysis). Within the EU Horizon Europe “PARATUS” project, IC was applied to analyze multi-risk events. This contribution presents the theoretical foundation of the methodology and its practical application in examining the Vaia windstorm.
The Vaia windstorm, which struck Italy in 2018, involved high-intensity rainfall and intense wind gusts. The application of IC demonstrated its potential to capture the diversity of risk components, vulnerabilities, and risk drivers, highlighting the importance of connections between physical and social elements.
This study underscores the need for advanced methodologies like IC to understand and manage the complex dynamics of climate-related risks. By providing a comprehensive analysis of multi-hazard events, IC can inform better risk management and adaptation strategies, enhancing the resilience of socio-environmental systems in the face of escalating climate challenges.