Abstract
Globally, the impacts of climate-induced disasters are on the rise. Some studies suggest that this upward trend is linked to the growing population and assets exposed to hazardous events. Others argue that it is driven by the increased weather and climate extremes caused by climate change. The factors contributing to the increasing disaster impacts remain unclear. This research addresses the question of disaster impact attribution in the Global South using Nepal as a case study. First, we assessed the spatiotemporal trends in the frequency, impacts, and vulnerability of multiple climate-induced disasters using the observed 30-year dataset (1992–2021) at the scale of 753 subnational units in Nepal. Second, we examined the spatiotemporal trends of six mean and extreme precipitation indices in the context of climate change. Third, we employed statistical models to study the attribution of flood and landslide mortality to climatic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. We found that the Mid-Hills and Mountains region in central and eastern Nepal had the highest disaster mortality in the past, but the rising trend is most pronounced in western Nepal. The increase in climate-induced disaster mortality, mainly in western Nepal, can be primarily attributable to the increased precipitation extremes caused by climate change.