Abstract
The Alps have experienced several hazardous weather events in recent decades, impacting both human and natural systems directly and through cascading effects. Since climate change is expected to modify the frequency and intensity of such extremes, with complex and potentially irreversible environmental and socio-economic consequences, robust information on current and future weather extremes is crucial for guiding effective risk management and adaptation. The X-RISK-CC project aims to support risk managers and policymakers in the Alpine regions in addressing the compound risks of climate extremes by developing risk management measures based on elaborated climate-change scenarios and risk pathways. To foster climate-informed decision making and the transferability of local results, a webGIS platform for the Alps translating climate data into accessible and actionable insights was designed for different user types, including researchers, risk managers and general public. The platform is complemented by technical documentation, scientific synthesis and analysis reports in selected study areas across Alps.
The WebGIS includes interactive maps of 20 indices describing current and future characteristics of climate extremes, including heavy rain, wind, heatwaves, drought and also compound processes, over the whole Alpine region. Current conditions are represented based on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA, 5.5 km) data over 1991-2020, while future changes are derived from a selected subset of EURO-CORDEX projections (~ 12 km) under four Global Warming Levels (GWL, +1.5, +2, +3, +4 °C) with respect to current conditions, corresponding to a GWL of +1 °C with respect to the preindustrial period.
The platform allows users to select specific indices, explore spatial patterns, derive season-specific analyses and examine the full spectrum of the model ensemble. Moreover, users can access aggregated information at the NUTS3 level, including summary tables detailing projected regional changes and boxplots displaying the ensemble spread across the GWLs. The ability to download all available data in customized formats enables their smooth integration into further modelling and local planning processes.
The contribution will present the contents and functionalities of the X-RISK-CC WebGIS, the methods applied, and some insights into future weather extremes in the Alps which can be derived from the interactive platform and depict, for example, the intensification in magnitude and frequency of heat and drought related extremes.
The research leading to these results has received funding from Interreg Alpine Space Program 2021-27 under the project number ASP0100101, “How to adapt to changing weather eXtremes and associated compound and cascading RISKs in the context of Climate Change” (X-RISK-CC).