Abstract
This work presents an Agroforestry Intervention Design (AID) Tool grounded in the WEFE Nexus, agroforestry modelling, and a DSS. Within the EU-funded TRANS-SAHARA project, the tool supports nature-based solutions in the Greater Northern African Region (GNAR) by embedding water security in a WEFE approach, deploying water and energy conservation technologies, and validating models in Living Labs (Tunisia, Ghana, Ethiopia). The tool assists researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders in planning interventions by integrating environmental, hydrological, socio-economic, and governance data to assess trade-offs and synergies.
Two modelling streams are linked:
Methodology: (1) classify model families, data needs, and gaps; (2) compile and harmonize multi-source datasets and KPIs; (3) implement a WEFE modelling tool tailored to Living Labs; (4) develop optimization-based land-use allocation for baseline and scenario analysis; (5) integrate climate and species-distribution projections; (6) build a reproducible data pipeline (ingestion, QA/QC, metadata, versioning); (7) design a DSS UI with dashboards, maps, time series, heatmaps, and scenario workflows; (8) calibrate/validate with spatially explicit data using out-of-sample and spatial cross-validation.
The modular system is co-designed with stakeholders and validated on real datasets and decisions. Open/proprietary components, reusable widgets, and an open repository with a metadata catalog support iteration and reuse. By unifying WEFE models with data-driven prediction and visual analytics, the tool delivers actionable, climate-robust guidance on where and how agroforestry is most effective, advancing multi-objective/multi-risk optimization (profitability, biodiversity, equity) and integrating carbon-market and payment-for-ecosystem-services logics.
This research is funded by the framework of the TRANS-SAHARA project, funded by European Union under the Horizon Europe Framework Program Grant Agreement Nº: 101182176.