Abstract
Mountain social-ecological systems are strongly impacted by changing climate conditions due to elevation dependent warming, specific orographic settings, and potentially higher degrees of susceptibility and vulnerability of flora, fauna and human communities as well as power relationships, management and governance aspects. Adverse consequences of climate change do not only affect high mountain regions but influence the well-being of systems further downstream. For example, water quality and quantity may be reduced and negatively impact the whole freshwater cycle. To identify relevant mitigation and adaptation measures, a thorough assessment of all hydro-climatic risk components is critical.
The presented approach applies a participatory climate risk assessment using Impact Chains as a structural back bone to represent relevant dynamics and complexities of the social-ecological system at stake (The Vulnerability Sourcebook and supplements, 2014-2018). This approach integrates local experts’ and practitioners’ knowledge to (i) validate implemented approaches and assumptions, (ii) raise awareness, and (iii) create ownership for future adaptation measures. Deglaciation on the Andes Mountains represent a clear example of the consequences on socio-ecological systems upstream and downstream. An in-depth literature analysis combined with geographical data analysis supports identifying relevant risk components of hydro-climatic, biophysical, or socio-economic type. A participatory process with local experts validates the selection of context-specific factors driving risk covering the system exposure, future trends in climate hazards, and all main vulnerabilities. All these factors are systematised in impact chains created for the specific context of this case study area and allow for a spatially explicit visualisation of risk factors, namely hotspot risk maps.
The case of the Puna region of the southern Peruvian high Andean-mountains strongly affected by deglaciation, presents a complex interaction of risk factors affecting the ecosystem services and, simultaneously, the livelihoods of the rural population upstream and the population downstream.The participatory process systematising and validating the factors, included experts working at municipal and national level, researchers, and non-governmental institutions, among others. Both, the resulting impact chain diagrams and the resulting risk hotspots maps, were key to developing targeted adaptation packages composed of measures aligned with the local and traditional knowledge of communities in the region and focusing on water management issues. To timely and appropriately inform decision-making and climate risk communication activities, the presented participatory approach for assessing climate risks requires an early engagement of relevant stakeholders. It provides a tool that deems useful for decision making, and risk communication supporting activities of climate change adaptation and resilient building amid the given uncertainties.