Abstract
Rapid urbanization in African metropolises situated in mountain regions, like the Greater Asmara Area in Eritrea, poses numerous environmental challenges, including soil sealing, loss of vegetation cover, threats to protected natural areas, and climate change, among others. Mapping and assessing ecosystems and their services, particularly analyzing their spatial and temporal distribution is crucial for sustainable spatial planning. However, few studies examine the dynamic evolution of ecosystem services, and even fewer focus on changes in ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots in cities and metropolises in mountain regions This study aims to map and analyze ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots dynamics in the Greater Asmara Area, located in the East African mountain region, to identify recent trends and opportunities for enhancing ecosystem services supply. Using remote sensing images, we produced land cover maps for 2009 and 2020 and mapped six ecosystem services through a lookup table approach. The study covers provisioning, regulating and maintenance, and cultural ecosystem services. We analyzed their spatio-temporal variations, identifying ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots and tracking their changes over time. The results indicate that overall ecosystem services potential in the Greater Asmara Area remains low but stable, with some improvements. By 2020, areas with no ecosystem services potential decreased in southern regions like Gala Nefhi and Berik, and new hotspots and coldspots emerged in central Gala Nefhi. This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility and key challenges of using ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots approach for sustainable spatial planning in rapidly urbanizing African metropolitan regions. Despite limitations, the study offers valuable insights into ecosystem services potentials, and related hotspots and coldspots dynamics, raising awareness and paving the way for further research and application in other cities and metropolises in the East Africa mountain regions and beyond.