Abstract
Water scarcity events are impacting large parts of Europe considering both upstream mountainous regions and downstream areas. These conditions are arising as a combination of reduced winter snow precipitations and spring rainfall, an increase in temperature, as well as an increasing trend of anthropogenic water and demands downstream. Moreover, climate change is affecting glaciers. While in the short-term their contribution in the low-flow summer is increasing, in the long-term their overall contribution will rapidly disappear. The Adige river basin in the Eastern Italian Alps is increasingly experiencing these conditions with impacts from the hydropower companies in the upstream region (Trentino/South Tyrol) and agricultural users in the downstream areas (Veneto region). The potential for water scarcity impacts to intensify and expand in the future as well as effective management and cross-regional cooperation of the water resources remains a major concern for the Adige river basin. Moreover, the change of glaciers’ contribution to the overall runoff, their timing of reduction, and consequences downstream for water management in the Adige river basin for future climate change scenario is still poorly analysed. For this reason, this study aims to quantify the water availability of the Adige river in major river gauging stations considering different future climatic scenarios from 2015 till 2100. In particular, climate scenarios will include future losses in glaciers’ volume within the ICHYMOD hydrological model and analyse the frequency of the low flow events that are likely to occur. The study will further estimate the active runoff contribution coming from precipitation and also from reduced or missing glacier scenarios.
The Adige case study is part of the NEXOGENESIS project, which adopts a Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus approach to evaluate future conditions of water availability and demands from upstream to downstream and along with the close involvement of local stakeholders. Based on these results and along with probable future water demand and inputs from the stakeholders, this study will identify critical future conditions of water scarcity from upstream to downstream. These results will provide valuable insights for decision-makers and support the development of effective strategies to prepare and better manage future water scarcity conditions in the region.