Abstract
The global transition to electric vehicles is accelerating, but the full implications of widespread transport electrification remain only partially understood. The present study provides a comprehensive evaluation considering technical and fiscal dimensions of this transformation, focusing on a regional case in northern Italy. In the evaluated scenario by 2040, 88.4% of the regional vehicle fleet will be electric, increasing the annually electricity demand by 22.4% while reducing CO2 emissions by 87.6%. However, the study also quantifies a critical policy challenge: a 229 million euros reduction of tax income from fossil fuel consumption, just partially compensated by a 60 million euros increase in tax revenues from electricity sold for battery electric vehicles charging. The integrated analysis offers insights for policymakers in navigating the complex trade-offs of transport decarbonization.