Abstract
Urban water scarcity presents a significant global challenge, particularly for medium-sized cities in the Global South. Understanding the resilience of urban water systems under climate change through a socio-ecological-technological systems (SETS) lens is essential for identifying cascading impacts on exposed systems, existing vulnerabilities, and for designing effective adaptation strategies. This study evaluates water scarcity risks in the Greater Asmara Area (GAA) Water Supply System by integrating a participatory Impact Chain approach with high-resolution hydrological modelling.
With its distinctive topographical features, GAA faces several challenges, including the need to pump water uphill to a plateau, increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, degradation of upstream watersheds, and growing competition for limited water resources. To address these dynamics, we combine conceptual risk mapping through Impact Chains with GEOframe-based hydrological modelling to assess water availability trends over the past three decades.
Our interdisciplinary and stakeholder-driven methodology involves the co-identification of key water security challenges, validation of modelling outputs, and co-development of impact chains and adaptation options. Special attention is given to the differentiated exposure of households, industries, and institutions served by both centralized (“Town systems”) and decentralized (“On-site systems”) water supply arrangements. The analysis distinguishes impacts across three interconnected system levels: (1) the watershed level, where land degradation and reduced infiltration affect supply; (2) the infrastructure level, where aging dams, pumping stations, and leakage-prone distribution networks limit delivery capacity; and (3) the management and user level, where inequitable access and informal coping mechanisms reflect governance and behavioural challenges.
An expert and stakeholder workshop is scheduled for August 2025 in Asmara, where findings and modelling results will be discussed and validated. Insights from this workshop will be presented at the conference, offering timely, context-grounded evidence for advancing urban water security and climate adaptation strategies.