Abstract
Understanding causal linkages and interactions between risk components is crucial to acquire a comprehensive knowledge of natural hazard impacts and improve risk mitigation measures. Despite several advancements in risk science and hazard modelling, the understanding of dynamics and interactions characterizing compound hazards and multi-risk is still limited. Taking stock of current limitations in risk science, our contribution will present a methodology to unravel the interactions among multiple risk components in a multi-risk context. Impact Chains (ICs) are conceptual models and analytical tools to systematize and visualize the interplay among hazard impacts, compound vulnerabilities, and exposure factors, streamlining the chain of cascading impacts characterizing compound events.
Within the EU Horizon PARATUS project we implemented ICs for the analysis of past events, combining it with Forensic Analysis. Forensic Analysis provided the framework to develop the event storyline and identify core elements of impact chains. The combination of these approaches helped identify past and present risk drivers, connecting them with hazard impacts.
To show the merits of this approach, we implemented it in the analysis of Vaia windstorm. The storm hit Italy in 2018 and was characterised by high intensity rainfall and intense wind gusts. Our contribution will present most relevant risk pathways, vulnerabilities and risk drivers and their reciprocal interconnections. The methodology showcases its potential for capturing the variety of risk components, stressing the relevance of connections between physical and social elements. The analysis of past events will provide relevant insights to improve future risk reduction measures, increasing disaster preparedness and resilience.