Abstract
Climate change impacts are becoming increasingly evident worldwide—rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Mountainous regions, recognized for their significant biological and cultural diversity, render vital ecosystem services to both local populations and adjacent urban and rural areas (Adler et al., 2022).
The Alpine arc, particularly on southern slopes, is experiencing above-average warming, with temperature increases exceeding the global mean (Zebisch et al., 2018). In South Tyrol, for example, the mean annual temperature has risen by 2°C since 1980, alongside effects on the intensity and frequency of extremes and shifts in vegetative and water cycles, with important impacts on environments and socio-economic systems (Eurac Research, 2023). These changes necessitate urgent and effective climate adaptation strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of alpine systems - spanning institutions, societies, and ecosystems (IPCC, 2022).
This contribution presents a novel, holistic methodology developed within the Provincial project “Adaptation Strategy South Tyrol”, oriented on the current climate risk study by the European Environment Agency, (European Environment Agency 2024), whose framework has been further refined and adapted to the context of South Tyrol. Our applied study utilizes a framework for climate risk analysis and assessment using impact chains, a tool developed by Eurac Research, which is integrated into relevant ISO standards (e.g., ISO 14091) and various guidelines such as the UNDRR technical guidance notes (UNDRR, 2022) and the GIZ Climate Risk Sourcebook (Zebisch et al., 2023), and concludes with the formulation of policy-based, co-developed policy recommendations.
The climate risk analysis is based on an assessment of climate hazards and direct climate impacts, grounded in regional observations and climate projections. In a second phase, climate risks for nine action fields were analysed by sectorial experts from Eurac and beyond, considering both climate and non-climate risk factors (vulnerability, exposure), and key risks were identified. As sectors, we considered water management, agriculture, biodiversity, forestry, health, tourism, settlements-infrastructure-cultural heritage, energy, and economy. Given the study's focus on the need for targeted strategies and tools, the climate risk analysis was complemented by an analysis of existing policy instruments, aimed at identifying weaknesses and gaps in climate risk mitigation within existing laws, standards, and regulations, as well as a stakeholder analysis to identify actors that have the power, legitimacy and agency for implementing adaptation measures. In addition to these analyses, the project included a participatory process to present and discuss preliminary results, aiming to gather and integrate further knowledge and practical experiences into the outcomes. This process involved three workshops at the Eurac Research Centre: an expert workshop with experts to discuss preliminary climate risk analysis results; a future lab with associations, civil society representatives, and stakeholders to develop a positive vision for a climate-resilient South Tyrol, shifting the focus from merely protecting the status quo to what is desirable in terms of social and ecological transformation; and a concluding workshop with provincial administration representatives to discuss policy gaps and to develop adaptation strategic measures for South Tyrol.
The results of this transdisciplinary process were policy based, co-developed, overarching and sector-specific adaptation recommendations, compiled in the report Climate Risks and Adaptation - Towards a Climate-Resilient South Tyrol, which analyses potential climate impacts and climate risks for nine sectors and their causes for South Tyrol and proposes strategies and packages of measures for necessary climate adaptation. The document serves to prepare and inform the Autonomous Bolzano Province-South Tyrol's climate adaptation strategy.
References
Adler, C., Wester, P., Bhatt, I., Huggel, C., Insarov, G.E., Morecroft, M.D., Muccione, V. & Prakash, A. (2022). Cross-Chapter Paper 5: Mountains. In: H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S.
Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds) Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and Ney York, Regno Unito and USA pp. 2273–2318, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.022.
Eurac Research (2023). Climate Change Monitoring South Tyrol. In Eurac Research. Available on line https://www.eurac.edu/it/data-in-action/monitoraggio-dei-cambiamenti-climatici. Accessed 05.04.2025.
European Environment Agency, 2024. European climate risk assessment: executive summary. Publications Office, LU.
IPCC (2022). Annex II: Glossary. In: H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (ed.) Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2897–2930, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.029.
Scherrer, S. C., E. M. Fischer, R. Posselt, M. A. Liniger, M. Croci-Maspoli, R. Knutti (2016), Emerging trends inheavy precipitation and hot temperature extremes in Switzerland, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, pp. 2626–2637, doi:10.1002/2015JD024634
UNDRR, 2022. Technical Guidance on Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Planning in the Context of Climate Change. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Zebisch, M., Vaccaro, R., Niedrist, G., Schneiderbauer, S., Streifeneder, T., Weiß, M., Troi, A., Renner, K., Pedoth, L., Baumgartner, B. & Bergonzi, V. (ed.). (2018). Rapporto sul clima – Alto Adige 2018, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italia. Available on line https://webassets.eurac.edu/31538/1630573573-rapporto-clima-2018-itnew.pdf. Accessed 05.04.2025.
Zebisch, M., Renner, K., Pittore, M., Fritsch, U., Fruchter S.R., Kienberger, S., Schinko, T., Sparkes, E., Hagenlocher, M., Schneiderbauer, S. and Delves, J.L. (2023). Climate Risk Sourcebook. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. Bonn.
Zebisch, M., Pedoth, L., Pörnbacher, M., Renner, K., Fritsch, U., Alberton, M., Bertoldi, G., Bisignano, J., Corradini, P., Crespi, A., Crippa, C., Ducati, V., Eisendle, F., Hilpold, A., Hoffmann, C., Horvath, K., Kircher, V., Lun, G., Maino, F., … Thaler, F. (2025). Rischi climatici e adattamento - Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima. Available online https://works.eurac.edu/Rischi-climatici-e-adattamento.pdf. Accessed 04.04.2025.