Abstract
The defeat suffered by Italy’s ruling coalition in the constitutional referendum on the judicial reform held on 22 and 23 March 2026 constituted a significant blow to PM Giorgia Meloni. In the days preceding the referendum, polling data suggested a relatively narrow margin between the competing options, and prevailing expectations held that higher voter turnout would favour the “yes” camp. Both assumptions, however, were contradicted by the outcome. This unexpected result, coupled with the higher-than-expected turnout, calls into question the apparent stability of the ruling coalition and raises doubts about Meloni’s political prospects. More broadly, it reflects a wider EU pattern, where constitutional reforms affecting the judiciary have become politicised, as seen in Poland and Hungary, often heightening executive-judiciary tensions and concerns over the undermining of judicial independence and the rule of law.