Abstract
The flap of a butterfly’s wings in one place might cause a tornado in another or so the chaos theory goes. March was thought to herald a period of calm in Spanish politics, one month after the Catalans had been to the polls and with the next elections in Southern Andalusia scheduled for December 2022. Once the electoral battle in Catalonia was over, a window of opportunity opened for dialogue and cooperation allowing the renewal of the constitutional bodies – some of them like the Judicial Council with a mandate which had expired two and half years prior – and enabling the withdrawal from the impasse in Catalonia after years of bitter confrontation. However, truth is stranger than fiction and a set of unexpected moves and countermoves have resulted in the collapse of two regional governments and a snap election in Madrid. This election anticipates a fierce battle between the two blocs that have dominated Spanish politics since 2015, even more so after vice-president Iglesias’ decision to step down from government to run in Madrid. The outcome will have a significant impact on national politics, determining the fate of most actors and opening a new political cycle in Spain.